Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86c1…9780 other 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%37W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$7
other 19% +$2
politics 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% +$1
economics 3% $0
culture 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 22% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 10 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 0% -10.6%
all 65 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage465d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $80 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 03 $54 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $40 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $77 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $50 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $49 −$6 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $4 $0 +8%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 19 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 18 $5 $0 +9%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 11 $7 $0 -2%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $5 $0 +10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jul 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $4 $0 +3%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 01 $15 −$1 -4%
Wimbledon: Draper vs. Baez Jul 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $2 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $40 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $40 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $36 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $21 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $18 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $43 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $5 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $5 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 58¢ $21 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 58¢ $17 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 58¢ $44 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $21 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $22 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records