Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
86 0x86c2…b613 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$387now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$1
other 6% −$12
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 6 -13.8% -22.0% 17% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 0% -11.8%
10% -29.5% 0% -20.3%
15% -36.3% 0% -28.0%
20% -42.5% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$387
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage244d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $189 $189 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $198 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 09 $19 −$1 -3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 09 $15 −$12 -81%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Dec 31 $19 $0 +2%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.27 · official $387.27 (match) · 16 history records