Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
86 0x86c3…2020 sports 373 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$439 (+3%) realized +$492 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%166W / 199L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$404
7 days+$659
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$547
sports 36% −$77
world 7% −$222
crypto 2% +$41
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +19.0% +7.7% 62% 62% +7.5%
≤30d 43 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 49% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 46% -11.9%
all 365 -1.7% -11.1% 45% 45% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 45% -7.5%
10% -19.6% 45% -16.4%
15% -27.4% 45% -24.5%
20% -34.5% 40% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$37 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$517
Realized+$492
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses166 / 199
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions6
Markets (closed)365 / 373
History coverage149d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $250 $292 +$42 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $100 $44 −$56 (-56%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 39¢ 10¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-73%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $69 −$67 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $152 +$121 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 −$150 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +44%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$131 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $70 −$69 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$101 +197%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$98 +64%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$105 +206%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $125 +$175 +139%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $199 −$196 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $153 +$312 +204%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 18 $253 −$250 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? May 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? May 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? May 17 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 17 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? May 17 $51 +$134 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $213 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 47¢ $102 6h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $69 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $102 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 45¢ $203 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 28¢ $102 31h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $51 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 37h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $152 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $145 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 64¢ $202 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $70 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $51 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $152 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.96 · official $516.98 (match) · 600 history records