Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86c8…547b crypto 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,425 (-12%) realized −$1,416 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%166W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days−$428
14 days−$441
30 days−$1,641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,331
other 12% −$534
sports 3% −$123
world 0% −$20
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -4.3% -13.4% 36% 36% -20.5%
≤30d 340 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 36% -23.3%
≤90d 422 -11.6% -20.0% 39% 36% -24.1%
all 430 -12.2% -20.5% 39% 36% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 36% -24.6%
10% -28.1% 32% -31.8%
15% -35.1% 29% -38.4%
20% -41.5% 24% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$1,416
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses166 / 264
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)430 / 434
History coverage131d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Will Graham Platner win between 75% and 80% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will J.J. Spaun lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the first round? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$5 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$11 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$148 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$19 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$44 +593%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$49 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$18 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$45 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$23 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$35 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$17 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$23 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 −$39 -71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$47 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$17 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$11 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$113 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $19 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $251 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $52 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.83 · official $14.96 · 986 history records