Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:34:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
86 0x86c8…c867 sports 715 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$153,716 (+23%) realized +$154,591 · open −$875
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%449W / 259L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$921per market
Trades / day41.3pace
Fees−$5,006est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6,516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14,800
7 days+$37,149
14 days+$41,835
30 days+$88,502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$87,860
other 15% +$11,085
crypto 0% −$256
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +89.4% +71.4% 64% 53% +24.9%
≤30d 305 +68.4% +52.4% 65% 54% +15.0%
≤90d 708 +70.1% +53.9% 63% 53% +3.2%
all 708 +70.1% +53.9% 63% 53% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +53.9% 53% +3.2%
10% +39.2% 45% -6.6%
15% ← realistic here +25.7% 38% -15.7%
20% +13.4% 31% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$995) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late +114% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$524 vs −$524 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$6,516
Realized+$154,591
Unrealized−$875
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses449 / 259
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$5,006
Open positions7
Markets (closed)708 / 715
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$921
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 708 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 70¢ $4,450 $3,525 −$925 (-21%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 56¢ 56¢ $2,680 $2,656 −$24 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 4.5 Corners Over 20¢ $50 $205 +$155 (+310%)
Club Always Ready vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $88 $88 +$1 (+1%)
Panama leading at halftime? No 76¢ 92¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 76¢ 80¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Miami Heretics 20¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3,700 +$6,300 +170%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $3 +$7 +197%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,419 +$2,081 +86%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2,678 −$2,670 -100%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: RS Berkane 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $4,875 +$5,125 +105%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $316 +$684 +216%
ITF Samobor: Andrej Nedic vs Nikita Mashtakov Jun 21 $1,484 −$1,484 -100%
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Madison Sieg Jun 21 $363 +$953 +262%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola Jun 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7,888 +$612 +8%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: UD Almería 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$13 +84%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $294 −$294 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3,209 −$3,209 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1,855 +$971 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $2,494 +$1,506 +60%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $4,974 +$1,470 +30%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Lazarov vs. Marchi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $8 +$12 +165%
Set 1 Winner: Lazarov vs Marchi Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol Jun 20 $1,173 +$62 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Bondioli Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $163 −$48 -30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,011 +$2,409 +238%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 20 $101 +$392 +388%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $86 +$335 +388%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 19 $1,104 +$396 +36%
Will Leinster win? Jun 19 $388 +$12 +3%
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 19 $217 +$899 +414%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $162 −$162 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $161 −$161 -100%
Dart/Lumsden vs. Sutjiadi/Tjen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $1,219 +$2,040 +167%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Errani/Melichar vs Olmos/Routliff Jun 19 $98 +$2 +2%
Set 2 Winner: Wobker vs Frodin Jun 19 $207 +$41 +20%
Set 2 Winner: Pegula vs Keys Jun 19 $425 +$66 +16%
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Despina Papamichail Jun 19 $462 −$462 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 19 $9 +$11 +134%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5,493 +$5,380 +98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $3,059 +$2,743 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $1,156 +$153 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $4,465 13m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $2,715 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 37¢ $3,700 3h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $13 3h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $2 3h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $8 3h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $10 3h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $10 3h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $20 3h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $20 3h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 20¢ $4 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2,419 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MODUS $0 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MODUS $5 6h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MODUS $10 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MODUS $88 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $4,875 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 57¢ $3 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 57¢ $5 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $231 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $21 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $14 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2,413 7h
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 31¢ $316 9h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka $150 11h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola BUY Berta Passola 58¢ $9 12h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola BUY Berta Passola 58¢ $57 12h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Berta Passola BUY Berta Passola 58¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,516.33 · official $6,516.33 (match) · 3500 history records