Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
86 0x86c8…c11d other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 311d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$416 (+2%) realized +$350 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,891per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$10,490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$72
politics 42% +$342
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 6 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 0% -5.8%
10% -16.7% 0% -14.8%
15% -24.7% 0% -23.0%
20% -32.1% 0% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$10,490
Realized+$350
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage311d
Avg bet$1,891
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $10,272 $10,331 +$59 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $73 $87 +$14 (+19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $188 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 14 $173 +$5 +3%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 14 $200 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jan 30 $394 +$6 +2%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet by August 23? Aug 24 $6,502 +$334 +5%
Trump x Zelenskyy meet on Monday? Aug 19 $1,000 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $81 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 17d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $75 17d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $190 36d
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? BUY No 100¢ $188 37d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $173 46d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7,020 46d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $10 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $6 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $9 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $10 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $5 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $9 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $93 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $9 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $95 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $5 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $28 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $0 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $10 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7 47d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7 48d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $278 48d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $13 48d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $41 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,489.87 · official $10,489.87 (match) · 121 history records