Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
86 0x86c8…570b sports 166 markets active 23h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$725 (+10%) realized +$729 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%77W / 87L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$391
7 days+$329
14 days+$1,170
30 days+$1,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$701
other 4% −$61
crypto 1% −$43
politics 0% +$7
culture 0% +$5
world 0% +$6
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -11.4% -19.8% 52% 52% +0.2%
≤30d 91 -2.1% -11.4% 58% 58% +9.0%
≤90d 95 -6.2% -15.1% 56% 56% +4.6%
all 164 -15.5% -23.5% 47% 47% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 47% -1.6%
10% -30.8% 46% -11.0%
15% -37.5% 41% -19.6%
20% -43.6% 34% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$26 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$729
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses77 / 87
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions2
Markets (closed)164 / 166
History coverage253d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $173 +$114 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $198 +$264 +133%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $112 +$107 +96%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $227 +$119 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $35 +$27 +76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $79 +$82 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$31 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $106 +$32 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$60 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $86 −$85 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $107 −$106 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $66 +$46 +69%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $71 +$93 +131%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $66 −$65 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 +$18 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$39 +77%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$41 +67%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$22 +43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $44 −$44 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $121 −$120 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $131 +$79 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$20 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $45 +$15 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $46 +$29 +64%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $42 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $169 +$27 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $63 +$32 +52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$16 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $25 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $125 +$100 +80%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $25 +$18 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 76¢ $168 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 54¢ $119 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 33¢ $19 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $15 25h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $19 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 56¢ $30 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $16 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $15 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $17 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $86 28h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $463 28h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 98¢ $219 29h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $25 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 49¢ $51 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 63¢ $30 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $36 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 43¢ $10 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $15 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 35¢ $15 31h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 41¢ $25 31h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $102 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $2 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $346 2d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 67¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.35 · official $41.35 (match) · 411 history records