Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:48:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x86ca…bc47 sports 266 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$273 (+5%) realized +$328 · open −$55
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%114W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$408
14 days+$619
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$178
other 8% +$9
weather 0% −$6
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +51.3% +36.9% 69% 62% +23.2%
≤30d 137 -0.1% -9.6% 44% 42% -1.9%
≤90d 153 -9.8% -18.4% 40% 38% -3.2%
all 263 -7.5% -16.4% 43% 42% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 42% -5.0%
10% -24.4% 42% -14.1%
15% -31.7% 42% -22.4%
20% -38.4% 42% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$14 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$328
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses114 / 149
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions3
Markets (closed)263 / 266
History coverage168d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 57¢ 54¢ $191 $179 −$12 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 52¢ 52¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage QT DIG∞ 47¢ 13¢ $59 $16 −$43 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) Jun 23 $52 +$64 +124%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $238 +$161 +67%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $70 +$145 +206%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $150 −$148 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 19 $121 −$119 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $90 +$107 +119%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 18 $80 +$127 +158%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $28 +$45 +165%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $87 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $2 +$2 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $108 −$106 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $103 +$127 +123%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $78 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $124 +$120 +97%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $62 +$117 +188%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $49 +$92 +188%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $68 +$5 +7%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $85 +$79 +93%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $32 +$76 +239%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $151 −$28 -19%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 07 $95 +$64 +67%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 07 $41 +$39 +97%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 07 $65 −$64 -99%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $69 −$6 -8%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 06 $60 +$39 +65%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) Jun 06 $41 +$78 +190%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $55 −$54 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 05 $89 +$65 +73%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 04 $99 −$97 -98%
Map Handicap: TLR (-1.5) vs Entropy (+1.5) Jun 03 $58 −$57 -99%
Heilbronn: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 02 $79 +$76 +96%
Perugia: Francesco Forti vs Reilly Opelka Jun 02 $47 −$2 -3%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $24 −$24 -98%
Map Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs eternal premium (+1.5) Jun 01 $87 −$86 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou Jun 01 $80 +$74 +93%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Guo/Mladenovic vs Mertens/Zhang May 30 $28 −$28 -99%
Map Handicap: UNiTY (-1.5) vs ENCE (+1.5) May 30 $66 +$42 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 29 $57 +$45 +80%
Map Handicap: RBLS (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) May 29 $60 −$14 -23%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Ser May 29 $19 −$19 -98%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov May 28 $5 +$6 +123%
Map Handicap: YN (-1.5) vs WAZABI (+1.5) May 28 $3 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $82 2h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 47¢ $60 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 57¢ $193 16h
Map Handicap: UCAM (-1.5) vs Pixel Lumina (+1.5) BUY Pixel Lumina 44¢ $52 16h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $238 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $1 2d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 48¢ $150 2d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 45¢ $121 3d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 32¢ $70 3d
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta BUY Alliance Guardians 38¢ $80 5d
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 45¢ $90 5d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group SELL CHAOS 50¢ $90 5d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 47¢ $87 5d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers $0 6d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 37¢ $28 6d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $108 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $2 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $7 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $7 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $14 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $14 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $41 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 43¢ $19 6d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 47¢ $78 7d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 50¢ $124 8d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $49 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $7 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $4 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 45¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.81 · official $291.09 · 513 history records