Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86cb…0a90 weather 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$42 (+3%) realized +$54 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate44%42W / 54L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -32.4% -38.9% 44% 29% -7.7%
≤30d 96 -32.4% -38.9% 44% 29% -7.7%
≤90d 96 -32.4% -38.9% 44% 29% -7.7%
all 96 -32.4% -38.9% 44% 29% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.9% 29% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -44.7% 18% -16.6%
15% -50.1% 10% -24.6%
20% -54.9% 8% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses42 / 54
Open positions4
Markets (closed)96 / 73
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? No 77¢ 76¢ $105 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C or higher on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $34 +$4 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 23 $126 +$12 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $79 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 −$40 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $21 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $93 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $37 +$36 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $37 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $66 +$15 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $83 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 +$12 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $43 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 82¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 84¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 61¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 73¢ $81 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? SELL No 78¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $65 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 70¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 90¢ $34 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 9h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 91¢ $126 12h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 22h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? SELL No 12¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 19¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 63¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 63¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 64¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 64¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $14 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? SELL Yes 96¢ $14 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.16 · official $134.16 (match) · 204 history records