Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x86d6…5414 other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$105 (+0%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 138L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$13
politics 36% −$11
sports 8% +$129
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 138 -1.8% -11.1% 4% 4% -9.5%
all 150 +5.5% -4.5% 8% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 8% -9.2%
10% -13.7% 7% -17.9%
15% -22.0% 5% -25.8%
20% -29.7% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×27.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 138
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage116d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $181 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $332 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $364 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $185 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $338 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 26 $176 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $174 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $153 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $294 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $371 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $351 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $343 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $304 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $153 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $300 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $183 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $330 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $154 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $181 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $149 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $194 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $381 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $158 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 21h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 21h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 30h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 45h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 19d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 20d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $25 20d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $185 22d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $185 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $188 25d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $188 25d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $176 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 423 history records