Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86d8…e520 sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$494 (-17%) realized −$441 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%17W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$376
14 days−$132
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$185
other 39% −$60
crypto 10% −$82
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -42.9% -48.3% 24% 24% -29.8%
≤30d 67 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -19.6%
≤90d 67 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -19.6%
all 67 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 25% -19.6%
10% -44.1% 25% -27.3%
15% -49.5% 25% -34.3%
20% -54.4% 25% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$32 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$441
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses17 / 50
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions6
Markets (closed)67 / 74
History coverage16d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-54%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 16¢ $50 $6 −$44 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $65 −$64 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $153 −$150 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $102 +$144 +141%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$49 +97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 +$107 +105%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 +$176 +172%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$71 +276%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 +$146 +474%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$51 +165%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 +$89 +291%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$71 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 42h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 18¢ $20 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 43h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 31¢ $45 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st BUY 34¢ $50 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: BUY 41¢ $102 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $51 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 48¢ $102 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $26 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 4d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 4d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $21 4d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $41 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $21 4d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $102 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 5d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 5d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $102 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 6d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.79 · official $163.50 · 114 history records