Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x86d9…2afa crypto 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%80W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
other 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 26 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 80 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses80 / 0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)80 / 87
History coverage239d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
StandX FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 95¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 71¢ 77¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? Jun 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? Jun 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? Jun 03 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? May 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? May 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? May 05 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? Apr 27 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? Apr 19 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 08 $109 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? Apr 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 20? Mar 22 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $108 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 9? Mar 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 7? Mar 08 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 6? Mar 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Mar 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 25? Feb 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 22? Feb 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 16? Feb 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 15? Feb 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 11? Feb 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on February 3? Feb 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Feb 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $99 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $5 3d
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 3d
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $52,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $105 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $103 16d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 30d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? BUY No 97¢ $5 36d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $102 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $101 53d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $5 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $107 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $111 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $111 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $111 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $109 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $107 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $109 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $102 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $102 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $101 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $101 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $101 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.97 · official $114.97 (match) · 168 history records