Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86da…401c crypto 1424 markets active 4d ago coverage 100d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 100d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%627W / 797L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$297
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$50
crypto 41% −$77
other 7% −$186
weather 0% −$27
culture 0% −$2
politics 0% +$2
world 0% −$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -2.4% -11.7% 48% 47% -9.5%
≤30d 670 +0.2% -9.3% 48% 47% -6.3%
≤90d 1321 -1.7% -11.0% 44% 42% -9.6%
all 1424 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 42% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 42% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 40% -18.8%
15% -27.1% 40% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 38% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses627 / 797
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1424 / 1424
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1424 Trades
no open positions (483 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$23 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 5¢ $5 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team WE 19¢ $19 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 6¢ $9 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 4¢ $10 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $0 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $5 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $0 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $0 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $7 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $0 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $0 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $2 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records