Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x86da…39f5 sports 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$290 (-1%) realized −$154 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate64%259W / 146L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$834now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$442
14 days−$374
30 days−$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$46
other 6% −$412
crypto 2% +$35
world 1% −$63
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -12.7% -21.0% 60% 33% -18.6%
≤30d 135 -10.1% -18.7% 59% 35% -12.9%
≤90d 355 -5.2% -14.2% 65% 35% -10.1%
all 405 -4.6% -13.7% 64% 37% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 37% -10.2%
10% -21.9% 26% -18.8%
15% -29.5% 17% -26.6%
20% -36.4% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$834
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses259 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions22
Markets (closed)405 / 432
History coverage602d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka West Indies 91¢ 89¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 87¢ 100¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 86¢ 85¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 81¢ 74¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 70¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 78¢ 27¢ $100 $34 −$66 (-66%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 72¢ 76¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 24¢ 8¢ $65 $21 −$44 (-68%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Olise 59¢ 58¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 42¢ 26¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-37%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? Yes 60¢ 59¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain? No 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Disney+ Reach 150 million total users by September? No 84¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $30 +$15 +50%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $1,032 +$59 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $228 +$6 +3%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $702 +$67 +10%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 20 $117 +$5 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 20 $303 −$250 -83%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 19 $30 −$22 -72%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-1 Jun 18 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $31 −$12 -39%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $340 −$340 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $10 +$13 +123%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $126 +$13 +10%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$19 +268%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $334 +$183 +55%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the No. 7 Toyota Racing win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $267 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $236 +$14 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -52%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $51 −$3 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +125%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1,102 +$27 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $351 +$26 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 91¢ $201 2m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 89¢ $107 1h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 83¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 57¢ $23 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL 63¢ $12 15h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $46 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY 51¢ $10 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $984 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 97¢ $901 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 53¢ $30 17h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Pakistan 78¢ $108 18h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 72¢ $101 18h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $769 19h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 5¢ $2 23h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Brazil 65¢ $235 24h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 52¢ $24 24h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 91¢ $702 25h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Brazil 63¢ $202 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 39¢ $10 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 62¢ $202 37h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 40¢ $43 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 74¢ $101 39h
Will New Zealand win? SELL No 19¢ $9 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 93¢ $11 46h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 94¢ $1 46h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 11¢ $5 46h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 86¢ $52 46h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 82¢ $50 46h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 40¢ $70 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $833.79 · official $853.79 · 1245 history records