Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86da…e546 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$176 (+9%) realized +$176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$927
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 25% -56.3%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 25% -56.3%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 25% -56.3%
all 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 25% -56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 25% -56.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 25% -60.5%
15% -26.2% 25% -64.3%
20% -33.5% 25% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$162 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $630 −$500 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $146 −$57 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$176 +499%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $106 +$289 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$68 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $22 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $84 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $95 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $395 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $171 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records