Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86dc…49c6 sports 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (267 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-12%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day267.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 50% -23.8%
≤30d 6 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 50% -23.8%
≤90d 6 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 50% -23.8%
all 6 -4.8% -13.9% 67% 50% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover267.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 50% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -31.1%
15% -29.6% 17% -37.8%
20% -36.5% 17% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$27 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day267.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$32 -45%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$21 +60%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $17 +$2 +13%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 28¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 28¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 29¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 29¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 30¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 30¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 28¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 23¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 23¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 23¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 23¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 23¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 16¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 16¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 16¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 81¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 81¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 82¢ $3 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 82¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 83¢ $3 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 79¢ $1 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 78¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $0 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 273 history records