Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86de…3f81 other 263 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 252L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
sports 25% −$16
politics 9% −$10
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
culture 5% −$5
world 3% −$5
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage144d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $135 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $407 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $424 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $531 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $462 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $670 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $178 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $396 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $372 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $372 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $321 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $288 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $576 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $156 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $223 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $278 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 16m
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 12h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 14h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 15h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 17h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 28h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 30h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $63 37h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 39h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 41h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 43h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 47h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 3d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1520 history records