Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86e0…fc68 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$6
other 37% −$6
politics 12% −$11
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.3%
all 45 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 4% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -11.6%
10% -19.5% 2% -20.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -27.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage398d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $63 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $39 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $27 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $32 −$2 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $35 −$2 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 09 $78 −$6 -8%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 23 $2 $0 +17%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -45%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 06 $8 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 02 $8 $0 +1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 29 $8 $0 +2%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 29 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Ashwin Adhin be the next president of Suriname after the election May 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 27 $1 $0 +26%
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu before June? May 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $28 $0 +1%
Will Fartcoin dip to $0.60 before June? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $28 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $9 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $20 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $12 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $32 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $25 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.81 (match) · 139 history records