Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86e2…2f3e other 557 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,482 (-6%) realized −$2,425 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate24%134W / 416L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$727
14 days−$846
30 days−$938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$1,399
other 19% −$408
politics 9% −$196
sports 8% −$444
finance 7% +$267
crypto 6% −$110
culture 2% −$48
tech 1% −$141
economics 1% +$8
weather 1% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.4% -27.9% 27% 7% -34.4%
≤30d 33 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 24% -20.9%
≤90d 101 -4.3% -13.5% 47% 36% -13.5%
all 550 -8.1% -16.9% 24% 16% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 16% -14.9%
10% -24.8% 11% -23.1%
15% -32.1% 8% -30.5%
20% -38.8% 4% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$18 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$2,425
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses134 / 416
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)550 / 557
History coverage528d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 80¢ 94¢ $62 $73 +$11 (+18%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 76¢ 80¢ $68 $71 +$3 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 28¢ $149 $69 −$80 (-53%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 78¢ 70¢ $62 $56 −$6 (-10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 67¢ 88¢ $39 $52 +$12 (+32%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $21 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 68¢ $22 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $70 −$23 -32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $39 −$14 -35%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 18 $30 +$11 +38%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $134 +$9 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $156 −$40 -26%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $104 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $148 −$28 -19%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $145 +$15 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $101 −$52 -52%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $353 −$75 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $87 −$6 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $392 −$172 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $356 −$79 -22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $250 −$109 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $282 −$163 -58%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $255 +$114 +45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $221 −$110 -50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $237 −$75 -32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $123 −$49 -40%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $246 −$98 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 03 $224 +$202 +90%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $281 +$32 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $645 −$23 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $434 +$27 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $291 −$112 -38%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $479 −$182 -38%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $201 +$20 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $315 +$202 +64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $162 +$48 +30%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 25 $236 +$105 +44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 25 $38 +$8 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $149 −$57 -38%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $298 −$264 -88%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $269 +$247 +92%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $242 +$99 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 13 $55 +$8 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $320 +$83 +26%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 10 $37 −$12 -32%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 09 $174 −$71 -41%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 08 $167 +$5 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 08 $61 +$7 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 07 $12 −$3 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $32 −$10 -32%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 07 $123 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 07 $151 +$19 +12%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 06 $266 +$35 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 06 $29 −$8 -27%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $207 −$73 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $228 −$73 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $29 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $48 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 78¢ $62 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 45¢ $25 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 76¢ $69 10h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $41 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $62 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $70 17h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $40 23h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 67¢ $39 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 43¢ $115 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $80 29h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $23 47h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 2d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 80¢ $63 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 45¢ $111 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 44¢ $9 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 55¢ $148 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $151 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $160 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $54 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $145 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $26 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $57 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $29 3d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $78 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $156 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $78 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $78 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.71 · official $366.45 (match) · 2669 history records