Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86e5…d5e1 crypto 81 markets active 3h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%73W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
other 0% −$4
tech 0% −$8
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 23 -3.8% -13.0% 96% 0% -9.6%
all 76 -3.6% -12.8% 96% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses73 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)76 / 81
History coverage247d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 25 $7 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? Jun 03 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 18? May 24 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 12? May 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? May 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 07 $108 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in April? May 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? May 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? Apr 28 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? Apr 19 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? Apr 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 19 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 12? Mar 16 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 7? Mar 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 1? Mar 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 23? Feb 24 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 20 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on February 16? Feb 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $108 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on February 3? Feb 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $104,000 on January 24? Jan 25 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $99 2h
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 6d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 6d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $113 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $113 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $112 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $112 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $110 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $109 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $112 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $108 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $99 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $102 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $103 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $98 66d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $106 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $106 76d
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in April? BUY No 98¢ $6 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $114 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $103 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $106 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $108 93d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 94d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? BUY No 98¢ $3 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $111 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $109 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.46 · official $118.46 (match) · 160 history records