Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86e5…99a2 sports 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$91 (+9%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$149
other 25% +$13
crypto 12% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -48.4% -53.3% 20% 20% -47.3%
≤30d 22 -19.1% -26.8% 36% 32% -4.9%
≤90d 22 -19.1% -26.8% 36% 32% -4.9%
all 22 -19.1% -26.8% 36% 32% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 32% -4.9%
10% -33.8% 23% -14.0%
15% -40.2% 18% -22.3%
20% -46.1% 18% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$15 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage26d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 −$15 -55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? May 24 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $25 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 24 $105 −$89 -85%
Will Gainare Tottori vs. Ōita Trinita end in a draw? May 24 $42 +$71 +170%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? May 24 $191 +$116 +61%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $15 −$2 -12%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $195 +$34 +17%
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $15 −$2 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $280 +$13 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $23 −$1 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $4 −$1 -19%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $4 −$3 -76%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 21 $2 +$2 +96%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Hamburg European Open (Doubles): Andreozzi/Guinard vs Atmane/Etcheverr May 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $16 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $9 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $17 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 5d
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $42 24d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P SELL Legacy 22¢ $42 24d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P BUY Legacy 12¢ $25 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up $16 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 24d
Will Gainare Tottori vs. Ōita Trinita end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $114 24d
Will Gainare Tottori vs. Ōita Trinita end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $42 24d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $307 24d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $171 24d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 24d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 24d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 24d
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 88¢ $25 24d
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 24d
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $188 24d
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 24d
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 24d
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records