Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x86e7…e8ac other 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$18
politics 27% −$8
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
sports 3% −$23
crypto 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -1.7% -11.1% 14% 10% -9.7%
all 92 -1.7% -11.1% 14% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 10% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 9% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$567) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)92 / 95
History coverage88d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $183 $183 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $658 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $93 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $361 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 05 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $380 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 20 $66 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $277 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $290 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $289 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,213 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $606 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $296 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $279 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $284 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $597 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $301 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $302 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $306 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $284 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $307 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $298 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $303 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $305 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $293 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $617 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 24h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $89 28h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $183 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $43 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $43 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $57 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $57 14d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 15d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 23d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $80 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 26d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $58 29d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $58 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $105 29d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 30d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 30d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.18 · official $314.18 (match) · 283 history records