Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86ed…21c9 crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$147 (-28%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 39% -35.0%
≤30d 18 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 39% -35.0%
≤90d 18 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 39% -35.0%
all 18 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 39% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 39% -35.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 39% -41.2%
15% -33.0% 22% -46.9%
20% -39.6% 22% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$33 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$14 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $56 −$32 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records