Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

86 0x86ef…aecd other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3per market

Trades / day16.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-9.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-0.3%	-9.8%	33%	33%	-10.2%
≤30d	3	-0.3%	-9.8%	33%	33%	-10.2%
≤90d	3	-0.3%	-9.8%	33%	33%	-10.2%
all	3	-0.3%	-9.8%	33%	33%	-10.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.8%	33%	-10.2%
10%	-18.4%	0%	-18.8%
15%	-26.3%	0%	-26.6%
20%	-33.5%	0%	-33.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized+$2

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3

Trades / day16.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	17¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	35¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 15	$3	$0	-4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$2	$0	-17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$2	$0	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$4	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	66¢	$3	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$2	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	17¢	$1	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	30¢	$1	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	34¢	$1	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	40¢	$1	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$3	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	64¢	$1	4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$2	6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.99 · official $3.99 (match) · 16 history records