Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:05:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86f0…2896 sports 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,064 (+8%) realized +$1,096 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%56W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$724
7 days+$681
14 days+$861
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$588
other 16% +$224
world 2% −$21
crypto 1% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -10.4% -19.0% 43% 37% +5.7%
≤30d 101 -4.1% -13.2% 39% 37% -7.9%
≤90d 138 -4.1% -13.3% 41% 38% -3.7%
all 138 -4.1% -13.3% 41% 38% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 38% -3.7%
10% -21.6% 35% -12.9%
15% -29.2% 33% -21.4%
20% -36.1% 31% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$56 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$1,096
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses56 / 82
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions3
Markets (closed)138 / 141
History coverage46d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 29¢ $57 $29 −$28 (-49%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 43¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-14%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $881 +$120 +14%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $208 −$129 -62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $107 −$78 -73%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $51 −$37 -72%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - BetBoom Ris Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs FORZE Esports (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $395 +$728 +184%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $242 +$163 +68%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 +$2 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $63 +$42 +67%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 19 $180 −$168 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $63 +$38 +60%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$1 -2%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Team Yandex (BO5) - BetBoom Ri Jun 19 $58 −$29 -50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $291 +$38 +13%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO3) - BetBoom Jun 17 $43 +$74 +173%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs The Soulless Team (BO3) - B Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aura Farmers vs Aterion Esports (BO3) - BetB Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris Jun 17 $110 −$109 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $251 +$24 +10%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix (BO3) - BetBoom Rise of Legen Jun 16 $90 +$159 +177%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit Academy White vs Omnix (BO3) - B Jun 16 $204 −$174 -86%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $190 +$75 +40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $212 −$21 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $160 +$41 +26%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: HARD GRIND vs Dark Phoenix (BO3) - BetBoom R Jun 15 $41 +$60 +147%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -3%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $14 +$41 +300%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $31 +$27 +86%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs ONIC (BO5) - MPL Indonesia Pl Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$20 -73%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $58 +$47 +80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 −$9 -48%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $34 −$4 -13%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $87 +$31 +36%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $46 −$16 -36%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $58 +$98 +169%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Contin Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP Jun 07 $111 −$111 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 06 $113 −$53 -47%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MPL Ma Jun 06 $43 +$58 +136%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +20%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Selangor Red Giants (BO5) Jun 05 $55 −$14 -25%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs Bigetron MY by VIT (BO5) - MPL Jun 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit Academy White vs The Soulless Te Jun 05 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $968 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $818 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $80 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $129 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 33¢ $34 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $64 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 12h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Verso Time vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - BetBoom Ris BUY Virtus.pro 33¢ $19 16h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs FORZE Esports (BO5) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports 12¢ $3 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,123 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $384 26h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs FORZE Esports (BO5) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports 12¢ $1 29h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs FORZE Esports (BO5) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports 12¢ $2 33h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs FORZE Esports (BO5) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports 12¢ $3 33h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs FORZE Esports (BO5) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports 14¢ $1 38h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 43h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs FORZE Esports (BO5) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports 12¢ $0 45h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs FORZE Esports (BO5) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports 12¢ $0 46h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $405 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.02 · official $64.03 (match) · 829 history records