Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
86 0x86f3…bdec politics 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 281d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$266 (+2%) realized +$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate15%11W / 61L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$7
sports 17% −$4
other 15% +$276
world 10% +$1
crypto 7% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
all 72 +21.5% +9.9% 15% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.9% 3% -9.4%
10% -0.6% 3% -18.1%
15% -10.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -19.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$0 · ×81.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.02 per $1 lost it wins $16.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

281d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses11 / 61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage281d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $334 $333 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $327 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $340 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $330 +$1 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 27 $341 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $471 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $107 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $310 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $318 +$1 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $337 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 14 $330 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 06 $321 +$2 +1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $334 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $410 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $325 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $409 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $333 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $333 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $403 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $328 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $339 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $324 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 11 $409 +$2 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 09 $323 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 08 $410 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $339 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $336 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $329 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 31 $151 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 31 $1 +$275 +24900%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $155 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $69 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 27 $1 $0 -26%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $148 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $76 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? Dec 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 03 $76 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $334 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $329 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $329 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $327 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $339 20d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $340 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $330 29d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $341 35d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $323 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $322 111d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 113d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 121d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 121d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 121d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 122d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 122d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY No 100¢ $318 125d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 125d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 126d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $337 126d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $337 131d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $330 134d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 138d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $321 143d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $329 148d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 148d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $332 151d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $333 152d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $332 153d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $331 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.50 · official $333.50 (match) · 354 history records