trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | -38.9% | -44.8% | 0% | 0% | -44.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -15.9% | -23.9% | 20% | 0% | -26.7% |
| all | 12 | -10.1% | -18.6% | 33% | 17% | -26.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.6% | 17% | -26.4% |
| 10% | -26.4% | 8% | -33.4% |
| 15% | -33.5% | 0% | -39.9% |
| 20% | -40.0% | 0% | -45.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 98¢ | $15 | $20 | +$5 (+33%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 08 | $118 | −$10 | -8% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 01 | $192 | −$192 | -100% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | May 26 | $266 | −$23 | -9% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | May 15 | $102 | −$7 | -7% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 11 | $213 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Apr 29 | $30 | −$6 | -20% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | Apr 03 | $163 | −$7 | -4% |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Apr 03 | $98 | +$8 | +9% |
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Mar 30 | $26 | −$4 | -15% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Mar 27 | $75 | −$3 | -4% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar | Mar 02 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Mar 02 | $2 | +$1 | +27% |