Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86f6…ee97 other 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 242L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$44
sports 22% −$19
politics 8% −$8
economics 6% −$4
culture 6% −$7
crypto 6% −$6
world 3% −$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage138d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $524 −$2 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $728 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $319 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $326 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $392 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $444 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $156 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $581 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $711 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $229 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $421 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $549 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $996 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $240 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $140 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $136 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $472 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $694 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $355 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $57 3h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 7h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $57 11h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $57 13h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 17h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 18h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 20h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 22h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 22h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 23h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 26h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 28h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 29h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 31h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 32h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 33h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $57 38h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $57 39h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 42h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 47h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 47h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1455 history records