Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86f9…c800 crypto 26 markets active 5h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-7%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -20.3% -27.9% 33% 14% -17.6%
≤30d 26 -27.5% -34.4% 31% 12% -20.2%
≤90d 26 -27.5% -34.4% 31% 12% -20.2%
all 26 -27.5% -34.4% 31% 12% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 12% -20.2%
10% -40.7% 0% -27.8%
15% -46.4% 0% -34.8%
20% -51.7% 0% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage20d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 29 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records