Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:57:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x86fb…46ab other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+0%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate23%17W / 57L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 64% −$14
politics 21% −$9
other 11% +$19
crypto 2% +$1
sports 1% +$56
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +14.7% +3.7% 29% 14% -6.4%
≤30d 21 +0.0% -9.5% 14% 5% -11.1%
≤90d 61 +3.7% -6.2% 21% 13% -8.3%
all 74 +3.1% -6.7% 23% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 11% -9.3%
10% -15.7% 11% -18.0%
15% -23.8% 11% -25.9%
20% -31.3% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage597d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $19 $0 -2%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +105%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $9 +$11 +129%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $152 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $137 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $286 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $139 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $297 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $145 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $139 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $140 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 23 $139 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $145 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $144 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $154 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $295 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $152 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $19 2h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 3h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 18h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 19h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $5 25h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 46h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $15 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 16d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 16d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 19d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.95 · official $123.95 (match) · 285 history records