Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:33:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x86fb…a9cc other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$49 (+7%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$56
14 days+$62
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$14
sports 20% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.7% -4.4% 73% 60% -1.5%
≤30d 16 +8.0% -2.2% 75% 62% -0.8%
≤90d 17 +7.6% -2.6% 76% 59% -1.4%
all 17 +7.6% -2.6% 76% 59% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 59% -1.4%
10% -12.0% 41% -10.8%
15% -20.5% 29% -19.4%
20% -28.3% 18% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage84d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $95 +$16 +17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 +$32 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$6 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $80 +$17 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $70 +$18 +25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 85¢ $95 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $61 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $95 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $80 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $90 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 8d
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $44 84d
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 84d
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records