Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x86fc…2715 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$52 (+5%) realized +$55 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$532
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +26.3% +14.3% 38% 38% +42.4%
≤30d 13 +26.3% +14.3% 38% 38% +42.4%
≤90d 13 +26.3% +14.3% 38% 38% +42.4%
all 13 +26.3% +14.3% 38% 38% +42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 38% +42.4%
10% +3.3% 38% +28.7%
15% -6.6% 38% +16.3%
20% -15.8% 38% +4.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$53 · ×3.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 34¢ $46 $44 −$2 (-4%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 +$297 +291%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $188 +$189 +101%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $113 +$78 +69%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $75 −$74 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $84 +$326 +388%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $95 −$94 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $86 −$85 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 +$66 +293%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $46 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $400 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $377 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $188 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $102 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $113 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $36 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $51 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $75 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $36 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $84 42h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $95 43h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $26 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY 14¢ $26 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $86 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $26 45h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.56 · official $72.57 (match) · 21 history records