Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86fd…3fdb weather 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$141 (-2%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%68W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$80
14 days−$79
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$164
world 2% +$12
tech 1% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -18.2% -26.0% 60% 0% -26.1%
≤30d 33 -6.1% -15.1% 85% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 69 -2.3% -11.6% 91% 1% -11.7%
all 74 -1.8% -11.2% 92% 1% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 1% -11.5%
10% -19.7% 0% -20.0%
15% -27.4% 0% -27.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$41 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses68 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage121d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 22¢ 39¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+80%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $87 −$76 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $99 −$12 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $92 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $108 −$92 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $163 −$56 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $163 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $153 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $152 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $148 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $139 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $136 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $134 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $130 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 04 $2 $0 +8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $124 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $120 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29? May 29 $111 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29? May 29 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $110 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $106 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 24? May 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 23? May 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 18? May 20 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $109 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 15? May 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 14? May 14 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 13? May 13 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12? May 12 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 12? May 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 11? May 11 $106 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? SELL No 14¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $87 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 86¢ $88 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $99 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $98 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $98 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $92 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $92 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $92 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $92 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $91 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $90 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $90 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $91 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $91 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $90 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $90 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL No 15¢ $16 14d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $108 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $109 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $108 15d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 58¢ $4 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 62¢ $38 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 65¢ $65 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $163 17d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $164 17d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $163 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $162 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.98 · official $70.98 (match) · 154 history records