Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x8703…48e6 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$78 (+3%) realized +$100 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate71%25W / 10L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$421
world 1% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.8% -6.1% 71% 60% +3.9%
≤30d 35 +3.8% -6.1% 71% 60% +3.9%
≤90d 35 +3.8% -6.1% 71% 60% +3.9%
all 35 +3.8% -6.1% 71% 60% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 60% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 46% -6.0%
15% -23.3% 20% -15.1%
20% -30.8% 3% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$30 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses25 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? No 4¢ 0¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $204 +$83 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $179 −$64 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $178 +$56 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $202 +$35 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $230 +$109 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $61 −$30 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $228 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $188 +$66 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $152 +$56 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $104 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $162 +$56 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $56 +$27 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$16 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $56 +$9 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $27 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $50 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.17 · official $1.17 (match) · 155 history records