Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8706…008c sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$223 (-5%) realized −$221 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate51%33W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day101.5pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$14
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -8.2% -17.0% 51% 35% -7.7%
≤30d 65 -8.2% -17.0% 51% 35% -7.7%
≤90d 65 -8.2% -17.0% 51% 35% -7.7%
all 65 -8.2% -17.0% 51% 35% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 35% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 20% -16.6%
15% -32.2% 8% -24.6%
20% -38.8% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$221
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses33 / 32
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage7d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day101.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 69¢ 52¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $170 +$64 +38%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $66 +$20 +31%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $66 −$4 -6%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $63 +$2 +3%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $89 +$15 +17%
Set Handicap: Majchrzak (-1.5) vs Lehecka (+1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$3 -27%
Set Handicap: Popyrin (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$3 -53%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $50 +$4 +9%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $77 +$18 +23%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $258 −$44 -17%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $4 +$4 +79%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $98 −$25 -25%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $74 −$49 -65%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $80 +$18 +23%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $67 −$4 -6%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $34 +$27 +80%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Jodar Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $103 +$5 +5%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $71 −$32 -46%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $71 +$20 +27%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $78 +$9 +12%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $81 +$5 +6%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $62 +$20 +33%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $121 −$3 -3%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $65 +$24 +37%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $233 −$17 -7%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $56 −$20 -36%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $76 −$4 -6%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $74 +$12 +16%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $79 −$16 -20%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $48 +$16 +33%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $41 +$10 +25%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $100 −$8 -8%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $83 −$31 -37%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $66 +$13 +20%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $69 +$10 +15%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $46 −$3 -6%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $99 −$4 -4%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $78 +$19 +24%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $62 +$10 +16%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $30 +$5 +18%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $65 −$12 -19%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 13 $71 +$4 +6%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $30 +$5 +15%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Jun 13 $55 +$10 +17%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $34 −$12 -34%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $74 +$7 +10%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $98 −$27 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 83¢ $7 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Kimberly Birrell 17¢ $2 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 47¢ $8 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 49¢ $7 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 42¢ $11 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 42¢ $11 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 38¢ $12 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Kimberly Birrell 63¢ $10 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 87¢ $11 2h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 84¢ $13 2h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 84¢ $1 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 68¢ $9 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 68¢ $16 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 72¢ $16 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 72¢ $16 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 72¢ $16 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 72¢ $16 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 71¢ $16 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 74¢ $16 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 74¢ $17 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 72¢ $17 2h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 75¢ $16 2h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 79¢ $11 2h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 79¢ $12 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 99¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 98¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 98¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 97¢ $9 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 97¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 96¢ $16 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.45 · official $6.45 (match) · 736 history records