Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
87 0x8706…0587 world 230 markets active 2d ago coverage 401d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$327 (+1%) realized +$327 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%130W / 99L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,032
14 days−$754
30 days−$1,105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$2,095
other 12% −$1,352
politics 6% +$443
sports 2% +$132
tech 2% −$404
crypto 1% −$75
economics 0% −$25
culture 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -36.8% -42.8% 29% 0% -40.9%
≤30d 38 -11.6% -20.0% 55% 18% -14.6%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.6% 59% 33% -8.2%
all 229 +1.0% -8.6% 57% 41% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 41% -7.9%
10% -17.3% 30% -16.7%
15% -25.3% 16% -24.7%
20% -32.6% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$60 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

401d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses130 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage401d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $922 −$336 -36%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $916 −$543 -59%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $188 +$8 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $297 +$25 +8%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $58 −$12 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $470 −$7 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $285 +$25 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $876 +$54 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $152 −$120 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,157 +$86 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $483 +$18 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $489 +$7 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $534 −$53 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $1,246 −$4 -0%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 12 $134 +$2 +2%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 12 $170 +$12 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $402 +$114 +28%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $559 +$94 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $623 +$187 +30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $235 +$9 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $129 −$54 -42%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $310 +$26 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $333 −$131 -39%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 10 $288 +$5 +2%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 08 $14 −$4 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $556 +$117 +21%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 07 $18 −$9 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1,711 −$158 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $545 +$245 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $833 +$267 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $534 −$509 -95%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $815 +$12 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $898 −$230 -26%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $1,054 −$47 -4%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $452 +$26 +6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $340 −$153 -45%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $555 +$92 +16%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $160 +$24 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $203 +$119 +59%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $233 −$16 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $433 +$36 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $62 +$9 +14%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $315 −$19 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $192 +$207 +108%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 23 $315 +$99 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $990 +$58 +6%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 20 $397 +$44 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 17 $1,102 +$207 +19%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 17 $253 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $46 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $253 2d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $120 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $196 3d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $89 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $205 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $209 4d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $413 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $138 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $188 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 72¢ $76 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 73¢ $37 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 74¢ $113 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 19¢ $3 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 19¢ $2 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 19¢ $2 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 19¢ $39 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $137 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $30 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 58¢ $46 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 67¢ $47 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 66¢ $60 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 65¢ $39 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 65¢ $6 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $287 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 12¢ $2 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 12¢ $2 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 12¢ $1 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 18¢ $2 6d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 18¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1278 history records