Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

87 0x8706…f8cc other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$615 (-65%) realized −$491 · open −$124

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$136per market

Trades / day20.0pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover20.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$143 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$226

Realized−$491

Unrealized−$124

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$136

Trades / day20.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$250	$208	−$42 (-17%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Yes	16¢	6¢	$50	$17	−$33 (-66%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-99%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$373	−$365	-98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5	Jun 16	$58	−$58	-100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$103	−$101	-99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	16¢	$51	48m
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	53m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$262	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	1¢	$30	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	1¢	$1	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	1¢	$4	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	1¢	$41	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	1¢	$0	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	1¢	$0	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	1¢	$0	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	14¢	$143	18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	15¢	$154	18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5	BUY Over	12¢	$58	18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$8	18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$50	18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$8	18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$25	18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$51	21h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.94 · official $225.94 (match) · 21 history records