Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8708…87c6 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$82 (+9%) realized +$83 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$51
14 days−$44
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$36
other 23% −$18
world 11% +$128
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -8.4% -17.1% 49% 11% -15.4%
≤30d 49 -7.4% -16.2% 49% 14% -15.4%
≤90d 49 -7.4% -16.2% 49% 14% -15.4%
all 52 -4.1% -13.2% 48% 15% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 15% -0.5%
10% -21.5% 12% -10.0%
15% -29.1% 6% -18.7%
20% -36.0% 4% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage147d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +43%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -25%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$3 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $27 +$2 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $13 +$1 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $22 +$1 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$9 -58%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 −$3 -20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -27%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $74 −$64 -86%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$9 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $65 +$1 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $60 +$4 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $46 $0 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$3 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$5 -51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$5 +25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 -5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $50 +$176 +352%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 53m
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 42¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 37¢ $1 4h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 4h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 10h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 21h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $7 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $5 42h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $27 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $13 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 62¢ $4 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $23 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $22 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $22 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $3.41 · 132 history records