Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x870a…1972 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +94% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+75.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +94.1% +75.6% 43% 39% -14.5%
≤30d 23 +94.1% +75.6% 43% 39% -14.5%
≤90d 23 +94.1% +75.6% 43% 39% -14.5%
all 23 +94.1% +75.6% 43% 39% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +75.6% 39% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here +58.8% 30% -22.7%
15% +43.5% 26% -30.1%
20% +29.4% 26% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +94% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +167% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$58 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $77 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $407 +$69 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $311 −$177 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$120 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$74 +283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $72 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $47 +$27 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $155 −$28 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $237 −$79 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $82 +$77 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $157 −$130 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$105 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $75 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records