Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
87 0x870f…6da1 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$135 (+48%) realized +$138 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$9
crypto 18% −$21
sports 13% +$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +49.3% +35.0% 33% 17% +203.3%
≤30d 12 +49.3% +35.0% 33% 17% +203.3%
≤90d 12 +49.3% +35.0% 33% 17% +203.3%
all 12 +49.3% +35.0% 33% 17% +203.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.0% 17% +203.3%
10% ← realistic here +22.1% 17% +174.3%
15% +10.3% 8% +147.8%
20% -0.5% 8% +123.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +235% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +235% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +144% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$4 · ×11.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.76 per $1 lost it wins $5.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)12 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $74 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Down 90¢ 81¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$166 +1326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 38m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 39m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 90¢ $5 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.06 · official $412.07 (match) · 52 history records