Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:45:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8714…eeb8 world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,286 (-41%) realized −$1,977 · open −$309
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$84
14 days−$1,221
30 days−$1,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$1,007
sports 15% −$700
other 15% −$110
tech 4% −$200
finance 1% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -92.1% -92.9% 0% 0% -92.9%
≤30d 6 +237.6% +205.5% 17% 17% -82.3%
≤90d 15 +62.8% +47.3% 20% 20% -58.7%
all 17 +50.5% +36.2% 18% 18% -56.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.2% 18% -56.7%
10% +23.2% 18% -60.8%
15% +11.3% 18% -64.6%
20% +0.4% 18% -68.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +146% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$161 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,181
Realized−$1,977
Unrealized−$309
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage102d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $963 $657 −$305 (-32%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $486 $480 −$6 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 20 $46 −$38 -84%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 11 $200 −$34 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? Jun 07 $5 +$95 +1827%
Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? May 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $321 +$168 +52%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 17 $134 −$90 -67%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $154 −$104 -67%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 17 $145 −$103 -71%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $231 −$231 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 08 $172 −$172 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $25 −$25 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 06 $300 +$209 +70%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 20 $70 −$41 -58%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Mar 20 $260 −$63 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $294 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $199 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $192 14h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $269 14h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 14h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $196 27h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $196 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $27 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 7¢ $71 8d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $94 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $76 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $57 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 26¢ $28 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $29 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 9d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $73 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,181.15 · official $1,181.15 (match) · 99 history records