Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
87 0x8715…c5a0 other 9 markets active 13h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$100 (+17%) realized +$111 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$44
politics 23% +$16
crypto 9% +$39
sports 6% +$9
world 5% −$12
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 71% +13.5%
≤30d 7 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 71% +13.5%
≤90d 7 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 71% +13.5%
all 7 +5.1% -4.9% 71% 71% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 71% +13.5%
10% -14.0% 57% +2.7%
15% -22.3% 14% -7.3%
20% -29.9% 14% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$6 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.63 per $1 lost it wins $9.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage6d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $160 $148 −$12 (-8%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 64¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$39 +70%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 19, 2026 Jun 20 $138 +$16 +12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $30 −$12 -39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 +$38 +34%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $35 +$9 +25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$20 +34%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $163 13h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $10 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $56 2d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $30 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $18 4d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $67 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $150 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $46 4d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 78¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 78¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 78¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 64¢ $25 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $30 5d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY No 90¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $78 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 6d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $30 6d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.59 · official $158.59 (match) · 26 history records