Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8716…bedf crypto 478 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,682 (-5%) realized −$3,682 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate73%348W / 130L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day31.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$48
14 days+$62
30 days−$1,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$2,804
other 8% −$216
sports 1% −$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +5.3% -4.7% 83% 7% -7.1%
≤30d 61 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 3% -26.5%
≤90d 426 -4.5% -13.6% 73% 13% -13.5%
all 478 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 19% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 19% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 18% -21.5%
15% -27.9% 14% -29.1%
20% -34.9% 9% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$44 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,682
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses348 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)478 / 478
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$170
Trades / day31.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 478 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $148 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$47 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $44 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $43 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $85 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $137 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$9 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $83 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $49 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $72 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $37 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $134 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $172 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $66 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $314 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $126 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $213 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $67 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $323 +$26 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $148 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $46 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $148 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records