Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8717…4e9d politics 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%12W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$12
other 24% −$4
sports 22% −$3
culture 4% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 3% −$7
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -24.9% -32.0% 75% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -24.9% -32.0% 75% 0% -9.7%
all 70 -9.8% -18.4% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -26.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses12 / 58
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage278d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $83 $83 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $82 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $85 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 09 $81 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $2 $0 -12%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $85 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $82 +$2 +3%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $81 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 25 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $163 −$1 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 21 $168 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $83 $0 -1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 18 $1 $0 -33%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $82 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $81 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $84 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $86 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 12 $2 $0 -10%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 29 $86 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $84 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 24 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $1 $0 -33%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 18 $85 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $83 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $85 28d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $81 109d
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $81 112d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 113d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 113d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 115d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 115d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 118d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 118d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 134d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $82 138d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $81 147d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $81 147d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $80 151d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 153d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 153d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 154d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $79 154d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $79 155d
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $81 156d
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $82 157d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $82 158d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $82 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.88 · official $82.88 (match) · 261 history records