Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8717…9521 crypto 120 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%56W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$225
14 days−$292
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$384
other 3% +$93
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 49% -17.6%
≤30d 119 -3.6% -12.7% 47% 45% -12.5%
≤90d 119 -3.6% -12.7% 47% 45% -12.5%
all 119 -3.6% -12.7% 47% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 45% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 44% -20.9%
15% -28.7% 38% -28.5%
20% -35.7% 34% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$53 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses56 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage8d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$4 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$27 +130%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $46 −$21 -45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $68 +$66 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $113 −$106 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $163 −$110 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $113 +$59 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$29 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $44 +$71 +162%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $114 +$85 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $346 −$112 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $206 +$87 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$58 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$23 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$33 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$35 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$17 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $76 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $205 −$158 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $103 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 38¢ $62 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $19 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $48 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $113 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $112 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $113 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $113 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $9 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.76 · official $9.76 (match) · 275 history records