Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8718…5040 sports 516 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$227,122 (-10%) realized −$227,122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate70%360W / 156L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,412per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$14,046est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$979
7 days−$170,689
14 days−$158,829
30 days−$123,809
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$226,170
other 2% +$114
crypto 1% −$1,418
politics 0% +$492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -54.1% -58.5% 32% 29% -52.2%
≤30d 236 -18.0% -25.8% 59% 52% -26.4%
≤90d 516 -5.6% -14.6% 70% 58% -18.5%
all 516 -5.6% -14.6% 70% 58% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 58% -18.5%
10% -22.8% 29% -26.3%
15% ← realistic here -30.3% 18% -33.5%
20% -37.1% 12% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$5,242) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$946 vs −$3,639 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$227,122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses360 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$14,046
Open positions0
Markets (closed)516 / 516
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$4,412
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 516 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1,710 +$413 +24%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $2,989 +$472 +16%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $891 −$874 -98%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $2,021 +$612 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $470 −$470 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $2,029 +$80 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $207 +$189 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $347 −$334 -96%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $4,581 +$1,183 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $3,825 +$670 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,018 +$728 +24%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $5,015 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $509 +$740 +145%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,010 +$361 +12%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $5,935 +$1,418 +24%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,021 +$912 +30%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,219 +$879 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,021 −$2,069 -68%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $2,019 +$922 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $3,807 +$520 +14%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,011 +$398 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,011 +$428 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,008 +$291 +14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $3,975 +$1,025 +26%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $508 +$589 +116%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $3,102 +$408 +13%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $2,612 +$444 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $709 −$700 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $291 −$285 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $587 −$570 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4,950 −$4,950 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,819 +$693 +14%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $4,190 +$615 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,906 +$325 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Jun 14 $1,737 −$1,737 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,994 −$3,994 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 14 $2,860 −$2,860 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9,324 −$9,324 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,648 −$1,648 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 14 $3,745 −$3,745 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 14 $4,872 −$4,872 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 14 $2,800 −$2,800 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 14 $9,220 −$3,792 -41%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 14 $2,825 −$2,825 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,021 −$2,021 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5,029 −$5,029 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi Jun 14 $2,688 −$2,688 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $4,974 −$4,974 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1,710 31m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 37¢ $815 41m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 38¢ $76 42m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $236 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $4 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $91 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $1,888 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $4 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $92 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $4 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $4 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $72 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $31 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $4 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $18 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $92 53m
Spread: Canada (-4.5) SELL Canada 85¢ $92 53m
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 86¢ $2,989 1h
Spread: Canada (-4.5) BUY Canada 65¢ $2,021 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records