Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x8718…7267 other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%16W / 16L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$3
other 34% +$8
politics 22% $0
crypto 7% −$1
sports 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 3 -17.2% -25.0% 33% 0% -6.4%
≤90d 6 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 17% -6.8%
all 32 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 9% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -6.4%
10% -18.0% 9% -15.3%
15% -26.0% 6% -23.5%
20% -33.2% 3% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.17 per $1 lost it wins $6.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses16 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage453d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 +$2 +6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1 −$1 -57%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $6 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Dec 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -38%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 11 $19 $0 +1%
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? Jun 08 $19 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $13 +$6 +48%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in March? Mar 28 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $3 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $42 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $7 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $31 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $4 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 31h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 8¢ $1 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $38 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $38 31d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 336d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $6 361d
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $11 366d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 366d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 370d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 370d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 370d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 370d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 370d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 370d
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? SELL No 98¢ $15 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.37 · official $44.37 (match) · 113 history records