Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x8718…0346 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-11%) realized −$37 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%38W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$24
14 days−$84
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$134
sports 10% +$4
world 1% −$7
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -27.2% -34.1% 48% 45% -17.1%
≤30d 73 -15.5% -23.5% 52% 44% -22.0%
≤90d 73 -15.5% -23.5% 52% 44% -22.0%
all 73 -15.5% -23.5% 52% 44% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 44% -22.0%
10% -30.8% 32% -29.4%
15% -37.5% 27% -36.3%
20% -43.6% 18% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses38 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage16d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 54¢ 28¢ $100 $53 −$47 (-47%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$2 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$16 +41%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$5 +113%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$16 +71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 47m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $23 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 74¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $7 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.72 · official $96.74 (match) · 136 history records