Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
87 0x8719…16a2 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-9%) realized −$110 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$180
14 days−$181
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$173
other 10% −$8
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.5% -23.6% 38% 38% -23.3%
≤30d 9 -14.0% -22.2% 33% 33% -23.1%
≤90d 9 -14.0% -22.2% 33% 33% -23.1%
all 9 -14.0% -22.2% 33% 33% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 33% -23.1%
10% -29.7% 33% -30.4%
15% -36.5% 22% -37.2%
20% -42.7% 11% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$35 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage10d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 14¢ $27 $22 −$5 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$7 -36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 +$5 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$10 -67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 13 $24 −$7 -30%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $1,035 −$166 -16%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $24 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 6h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $27 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $19 5d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 12¢ $866 9d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 88¢ $24 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 89¢ $24 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $517 10d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $517 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.75 · official $21.75 (match) · 21 history records