Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
87 0x871a…4229 world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$12
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$16
sports 36% −$5
other 18% +$3
politics 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 29 +1.7% -8.0% 59% 7% -8.1%
≤90d 51 +1.5% -8.2% 53% 8% -8.9%
all 54 -2.3% -11.6% 50% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 7% -9.2%
10% -20.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage535d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $52 +$2 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $196 +$2 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $55 +$2 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $19 +$2 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $93 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $58 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $73 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $149 +$2 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $117 +$7 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $54 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 20 $5 $0 -9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $58 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $2 $0 +11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $286 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $51 −$4 -8%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $259 +$4 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $135 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $285 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $209 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $54 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 47¢ $52 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $43 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $3 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $10 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $27 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $30 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $40 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $40 21h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $57 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 87¢ $55 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $52 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $47 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records